Perkiraan Produksi Kue Kering Salwa dengan Pendekatan Fuzzy Sugeno

Abstract

It has been difficult to predict the trend of buying pastries before the Eid al-Fitr in the last three years, to be precise, after the Covid-19 pandemic. This makes it difficult to estimate the production of pastries to meet market demand. Salwa cookies, is an MSME brand that has been established since 2015 in Ciamis. Every year, Salwa produces pastries to meet market demand for Eid pastries. Production of Salwa cookies begins approximately 3 months before Ramadan. The turmoil in people's purchasing trends is often unpredictable, so that sometimes it causes excess or shortage of products. This study aims to help Salwa producers and agents obtain references for data processing of production and stock quantities in subsequent years, so that production and stock quantities can be determined more accurately. The research method used is descriptive quantitative where the research results are in the form of numbers in tables explained using word representations. Forecasting the amount of production is calculated using fuzzy logic with the Sugeno fuzzy method. The results of the prediction have an error value of 34.5465%. Thus, it can be concluded that the correct performance reaches 65.4535% where this value according to Lewis C.D (1982) is still in the fair category.